I've been following the thread comments here plus reading numerous news media reports. As usual with these things it's hard to establish what's actually happened. Looking at Monto on Google maps it appears to be approx 300 klms as the crow flies from Caboolture (so 162 NM approx). The consistent line that's in most of these news stories is that they left Monto just after 11am and were scheduled to arrive at Caboolture at 2:15pm. Assuming the departure was say 11:15am that's three hours to travel 162 NM! I don't know what speed VH-UXG cruises at but I'm pretty sure it would be faster than 54 knots so either this ETA YCAB has been misreported or it was actually the SARtime (to be cancelled by).
Also there's mention of the pilot contacting a Channel Nine helicopter pilot but no indication that he was able to indicate what his last known position was. Morno says above
Sounds like the poor bugger just couldn't seem to hold her straight. His heading was all over the place
which would suggest he was flying away from track or wandering, perhaps in circles. If he was in cloud and struggling you'd expect he would have maintained his heading at least, but perhaps he's had an instrument failure too and if it was something like the DG (if he has one) rolling or the compass jammed then even more confusion would have ensued.
Also there are varying reports of the time that the ELT was activated. AMSA are reporting on their website 1:30pm. Brisbanetimes.com.au are reporting it was at 2:45pm. Constantly mentioned is that the signal "was lost a short time later" but no specifics on whether this was 30 seconds, 5 minutes or 30 minutes.
I'm sure the search personnel have listened to the ATC tapes to see if there are clues or indications that could help. The 540 sq klms being mentioned in the news articles is a very big area when it's densely forested and it will be very hard to find if it's dropped through the canopy. Anyhow if anyone can comment or enlighten on these questions that would be helpful to try and understand what's happened:
1. Would it really have taken "just after 11am" to 2:15pm to fly from Monto to YCAB?
2. What speed does VH-UXG cruise at?
3. What would the endurance have been ex Monto?
4. Was the ELT fixed (with auto trigger after an impact) or a handheld unit that Des would have set off manually?
5. Did the aircraft have a GPS or does Des carry a hand-held unit with him?
6. Does anyone know how long the ELT signal was being received before it went silent?
7. There's constant mention in the media of Des being a very experienced pilot but potentially he's not IFR rated (given his aircraft looks to be very much a VFR only platform) nor has much experience to fall back on in IMC conditions (pure speculation on my part). Does anyone know what capabilities he has?
My prayers and best wishes to the pilot and passengers, their families and friends. It doesn't look good and if he was in cloud and struggling to "hold her straight" we all know what the outcome of that is likely to have been.
Ren