Repair Doubler/patch intact. It's been intact for 20 years.
Cargo door shattered and critical pieces missing. Pieces missing are in the middle area where ruptures occur.
Probable cause?
Oh, the thing that didn't break caused it and the thing that did break did not cause it.
The thing that gets me is the lack of pursuit for the obvious mechanical answer with precedent, wiring/cargo door problem, and the too anxious claims of officials that it was a 'crack' while making comments like, 'It is still unknown why the Boeing 747-200 broke apart about 20 minutes into a flight from Taipei to Hong Kong on May 25', said Yong,
Genuine pursuit of probable cause of 611 means getting all the parts to the shattered cargo door, all those missing big parts, all the special parts tthat have the area of midspan rupture such as pins, latches, cams, torque tubes, and manual locking handle, all missing.
They are missing for a reason. I don't know the reason but they should have been recovered. The aft area debris field was extensively searched.
Until the mysterey of those missing pieces is answered there can be no probable cause that excludes a wiring/cargo door fault....like UAL 811 except it was the identical aft cargo door with identical known faulty poly x wiring instead of the forward cargo door.