The decision between B and C should be announced shortly now that local elections are out of the way. I remain of the view that the decision will be made on short term economic grounds. So, if one version means lower expenditure between now and 2015 (next SDR and general election) then that may well carry the day whatever the whole life costs or military comparisons might show. I guess this would mean the B is favoured as there will be no EMALS cost (and for the purpose of justifying such a decision, a conversion cost of £1.8bn is much more useful than a lower one) and no need to change plans that were already in place before 2010 SDSR. I dislike short-termism, but it's sometimes hard to avoid the truism that you have to survive the short term in order to get to the long one.
Whatever is announced will only be relevant until 2015. The carriers will continue to be built and F35 continue to be developed, but the government has already confirmed the decision on how many aircraft to order will not be taken until the 2015 SDR. Export buyers such as the Dutch and the Australians have announced something similar. Sensible really as until the US really commits to the fighter’s production why would an export buyer take the risk?
And what might SDSR 2015 hold? Well, the carrier/F35 debate will get another re-run. It will need UK plc's economy to be much healthier than it is now for this to be a positive review. If it isn't, it then carrier strike and diplomacy may have come, gone, and cost us a big wedge of money before we got a chance to use it.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the Atlantic, a
Flightglobal item hints at a degree of USN ambivalence towards the F35C. The navy’s F/A-XX proposition is a potential replacement for SuperHornet and not an F35C substitute, but the demarcation line between them appears to be a little fuzzy. The big issue is, of course, money. How can the navy get the funds to start developing another new fighter as well as introduce the F35C in these austere times? For F/A-XX to be ready for 2030 LRIP, they would need to get their skates on, and so have to start spending concurrently on the C and XX development in the near budgetary future. Seems a hard sell to me.
Senior official raises F/A-XX doubts while retired USMC Generals question USN