I believe that basings as we know it are finished. They will never force those on the base back to HKG but I think you will find that very few or no new base slots will open. "Wither on the vine" sound familiar?
There will also not be a BIG announcement of the the new plan because as a previous poster said there will be a large number of pilots, waiting for a base, calling it a day then. It's the old "dangle the big juicy carrot" trick. People will stay in the hope of getting that base when the company know that they have no intention of offering it.
This can then also address issue #4 above - it leaves the DEFO hired directly onto the base option open should it be needed at some future point.
I think the "issue" with basings essentially comes down to one thing - control/power. CX are losing control of the situation as they are being forced to abide by 1st world style labour laws. I am pretty sure that they will willingly forego some significant staff savings in order to regain the power that they are losing.
CX and Swire don't play very well with others when they are not getting their way!