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Old 14th Mar 2012, 12:55
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AlphaZuluRomeo
 
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Originally Posted by fdr
Had the tyre failed on this takeoff for no external causation, the outcome would have still been the same, as the inherent weakness of the design, and it's latent potential for consequential failures of some significance were not addressed.
Well, that's not what BEA said. In fact, they may have written:
"Had the tyre failed on this takeoff for no external causation, the outcome would have been different, because the parts of tyres would have been smaller and lighter. Being so, they could not have triggered the hydrodynamic effect that concluded with the structural failure (a piece of tank skin ~ 26x26cm ejected, resulting in a massive leak".

However, I agree that in the light of the accident, the tyres could (should?) have been improved before such a catastrophic event.
Had the new "NZG" Michelin tyres been fitted, the outcome may have been different, too (perhaps just a non event).

Now, what about cost? Analysis has been made and solutions were implemented (before 2000). As you noted, tyres failed. Regularly. With consequences, but no catastrophic ones.

Originally Posted by fdr
What probably has never been foreseeable is that replacing a poorly designed component subject to abrasion with a harder material would result in the chain of events cobbled together by fate in this disaster. Occasionally, accidents do happen.
I understand you're not advocating that someone should have foreseen this kind of accident. Indeed, that would be a big "what if", in my mind. And Concorde was not a military plane, hardened/armored against a large range of hypothetical external agressions...


[edit]Please don't think I try to refute other failures/errors before/during that flight (missing spacer, early cut-off of eng 2...) but I read the BEA on those topics:

§ 1.18.2.3 Possible consequences on the Landing Gear of the Absence of the Spacer
In conclusion, nothing in the research undertaken indicates that the absence of the spacer contributed in any way to the accident on 25 July 2000.
§ 2.1.4 Loss of Control of the Aircraft
In these extreme conditions, the combination of lateral and thrust asymmetry and the major thrust/drag imbalance, which could not be compensated for by a descent, led to a loss of control. This loss of control was probably accelerated by the structural damage caused by the fire.
In any event, even if all four engines had been operating, the serious damage caused by the intensity of the fire to the structure of the wing and to some of the flight controls would have led to the rapid loss of the aircraft.

Regards.

Last edited by AlphaZuluRomeo; 14th Mar 2012 at 13:44.
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