It will take at least Two smoking holes in the ground before CASA and Qantas are hung drawn and quartered.
The first will be put down to "pilot error" and Olivia Wirth will state philosophically that the simple law of averages finally caught up with Qantas..and there won't be another accident for another Forty plus years.
Then there will be a second accident....
And if that isn't enough, the Third will do it.
The Minister will then headhunt either an EASA or FAA heavy hitter to clean up the mess.