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Old 23rd Sep 2011, 18:02
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Air Profit
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: No where
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Wake Up Time

Gents,

A quick synopsis of the financial markets, combined with an overview of the trade conditions (particularly here in China) suggest that the world as we know it is about to take a serious turn for the worse. Yesterday, Fedex announced that there has been a sharp drop-off in Asia originating tech shipments. Additionally, there is the mother of all credit crunches developing in China (those of you who are sitting on a profit in property....now might be the time to get out!).

Europe: About to implode. The Greece situation is going to lead to a collapse in the Euro, and outright recession/depression. The large banks are technically insolvent with no mechanism to recapitalise them. The counterparty risk is unquantifiable, but certainly of a staggering scale.

USA: Screwed....politically and financially. There is no hope of avoiding a recession. This will trigger even higher levels of unemployment which will lead to yet another leg down in housing. The model is broken there with the bank stocks reaching record lows again and main economic companies (like Fedex etc) flashing warnings of a sudden and large world slowdown.

Asia: Living of an export bubble supported by easy Chinese money. The brakes are on and companies are closing suddenly and in large numbers. Suppliers and banks are not being repaid with unemployment starting to spike, leading to massive outbreaks in civil unrest. The follow on in HK will be dramatic and will result in 1997 like falls in economic activity and falls in housing prices.

Overview: No place to hide. CX will have to hunker down for the next several years. Any planned expansion will probably be put on hold. The next battle over pay and conditions will be fought from a much reduced position of strength on our part. Watch the weekly telex for indications of all the above stated ideas.

...hopefully i'm wrong...but 20 years of market study convince me that the sky really is about to fall. Good luck.
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