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Old 17th Jun 2011, 07:29
  #8218 (permalink)  
Re-entry
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: orbital
Posts: 186
What do you make of the announcement about that says that it appears our Sun is heading for a rest period? If it's true then it could have a much more devastating effect than a small amount of global warming.
Unfortunately if the sun does take a rest, it won't help very much. Before the denialists start celebrating the impending new 'little ice age', they want to read this.

A recent paper by Georg Fulner and Stefan Rahmstorf asked what might happen to earth’s climate in the event of a new solar minimum. That paper’s key graph is adapted above. The paper’s conclusion:

In summary, global mean temperatures in the year 2100 would most likely be diminished by about 0.1°C. Even taking into account all uncertainties in the temperature re- construction, the forcings, and the model physics, the overall uncertainty is estimated to be at most a factor of 3, so the offset should not be larger than 0.3°C. Comparing this to the 3.7°C and 4.5°C temperature rise relative to 1961–1990 until the end of the century under the IPCC A1B and A2 emission scenarios, respectively, a new Maunder‐type solar activity minimum cannot offset the global warming caused by human greenhouse gas emissions.
Here is a link to Peter Sinclair's website. He is a very effective climate denialist debunker.

Graph of the Day: What if the Sun Goes into another Maunder Minimum? « Climate Denial Crock of the Week
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