The question is, is the level of traffic reducing because of something CWL airport are doing or something they are not doing?
Now there is a good question. There is a third option of course - 'or is it reducing due to factors outside the control of anyone at the airport'. But first, let me add a few more thoughts....
The market was most certainly there a few years back. SR71's airframe observation, backed up by MV's numbers, shows this was true. So the question then moves to "where has that market gone".
It's fair to say that a large number of passengers that should normally use Cardiff (and who probably did in the past) are now using Bristol, Birmingham or somewhere else. Or, they have just stopped traveling, which seems very unlikely given global trends, and the rapid growth of Bristol. Passenger behaviour has now changed, and people are used to using Bristol, or Birmingham, and changing it back is going to be a long, hard slog, unless one of the major operators at Bristol decides to move to Cardiff. And I for one just cannot see that happening.
Airlines tend to flock around airports that have proven catchment. That reduces risk. It's rather akin to the shopping centre argument - you can bet John Lewis wouldn't have come to Cardiff unless they could see lots of shoppers coming and going to the other shops, who were reporting good numbers. (CF, Emirates at this point, another reason I am prepared to bet you won't see them in Cardiff, but I digress). What airlines are currently seeing is not a growing airport, but a contracting one - the market doesn't appear to be there, and even the larger players (like Baby) are looking long and hard and taking aircraft elsewhere - to airports that seem to have a stronger market.
It is going to take a serious leap of faith on behalf of a carrier to start up in Cardiff right now. The economy is off into the toilet (in terms of disposable income for passengers as VAT and tax rises start to bite) which is going to pressurise yields for months, if not years, to come.
It is largely up to the airport to show that the market is there. I would bet Cardiff City Council did this for John Lewis! However, I would suggest that Zelo has a good point. What if this is a Michelson–Morley scenario, and the reason that no-one can prove the market is that it is, no longer, there?
Gulp.
TA