Originally Posted by
cazatou
SFFP
You have neglected one important finding of the AAIB - which was that the Chinook impacted at a speed of approx 150 kts. That equates to slightly greater than 253 ft/sec or approximately 80 metres/sec. The highest estimate of the visibility by those in the vicinity was by Mr Murchie (a Qualified Met Observer) whose estimate was "15 to 20 metres at most".
If I was a barrister in a court of law and was to ask Mr Murchie to tell me on oath what the actually visibility was 30 meters away from where he stood what do you reckon his answer would be
That speed therefore gave them just one quarter of a second to acquire, recognise and attempt to avoid danger.
1/4 of a second to spot and react
I must point out, however, that the assessed speed at impact was whilst attempting an apparent escape manoeuvre ; the speed prior to that attempt would of course have been greater.
Whilst it is apparent that a belated escape manoeuvre was attempted, that attempt was to late to prevent impact with the ground.
Where did they find the time to spot and react to the upcoming disaster if the vis was only 20 to 30 meters
The Forecast weather for the Mull would have precluded flight in accordance with VFR. The actual weather at the Mull as assessed by 2 qualified Met Observers was distinctly worse than the Forecast. That assessment was reinforced by the evidence of 7 other eye witnesses.
Caz,
If you were really a pilot in the RAF you would know for sure that a forecast is precisely that, it's a best guess as to what may happen weather wise in the coming hours.
In my 20 odd years of flying the amount of forecasts that eventually mirror actuals is absolutely nowhere near 100%
This really is not rocket science, I make tea and coffee for a living and even I get it.