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[bearfoil]

mm43 You pose an interesting question. I consider ACARS a system status report/Log, intended for the a/c base. RTLU WRN. falls within that milieu, it can be assumed (can it?) not to be a pilot alert. Of the more salient data in the ACARS log, TCAS and RTLU seemed initially to be more alarming than a/p drop. Their direct relationship to the crash may escape one, but they tell a tale.

A working theory is that A/P disconnect and Law reversion signalled the initial response of ACARS to upset, not the beginning of a trail of fails, but the deluge of data needing to be sent to Mx. As has been noted many times, A330 Autopilot has a responsibility to maintain control up to its manouvering limits. I submit that the limit was reached as a result of upset, not at its beginnings.

TCAS depends on a/s, Rudder on Law. I don't think the pitots and statics crapped out as a result of simultaneous icing, but instead did not crap out at all, their individual reports may have been consistent with airflow in unusual attitudes. Simultaneous failure (icing) would it seems to me be dependent on a consistent airflow, and temp.; At least one to facilitate a sudden icing of all sensors.

Given a simultaneous icing, there would also be no discrepant readings, right? They would be wrong, but each reasonably to be expected wrong in unison (at the same rate). If ice was not simultaneous, TCAS is expected up front in the cascade of warnings. Law change follows a/p autonomous quit, but AL II? I do not know this.

I am not persuaded that RTLU WRN wasn't a malfunctioning limit, not the acquisition of reverted and mechanical limits. Again, if the RTLU was operating correctly, why would ACARS "WRN" maintenance? Even had the 16 degree lock been working, If god forbid any Rudder was input, the potential for airframe damage at this speed is clear. I think there was substantial tail failure at altitude, a beginning at least of tailplane and VS complete loss. The THS was full of 10,593 pounds of fuel, and the Rudder had 16 degrees of sweep available. If upset occurred prior to a/p loss, it is more likely damage occurred in flight, than not, but certainly as a precursor to water impact. Thoughts?

edit: This before even broaching a Windshear WRN at or about upset!! Caveat! ACARS makes for a lousy FDR.

edit: It is unlikely the a/c did NOT bury her snout. the mass is concentrated well forward of the tail, no? This would all but stop her forward momentum.

bear