Not for the "why," but for the "where," I'm wondering if an effort has been launched (or should be launched) to unify the many lines of thought and theories expressed during the last year here and by BEA (including the Drift Group's findings) using some sort of
Bayesian probability logic applied to the grand picture... an approach that might integrate not just the drift calcs and thier probabilities, but the ACARS clues and aircraft flight behaviors as well. Assigning all known and speculated possibilities (including wacko ideas) weighted probabilities. and then doing the esoteric calculations (way beyond my own skillset), would it be possible to zero in on a high-probability search area for a Phase 4 reflecting what is known today?
GB