interesting
Interesting reference to the V/S article in support of a “deep stall” scenario. Thanks, mm43. On the face of it doesn’t sound as improbable as that. Having said that, I cannot really follow all the mumbo-jumbo calcs. And the FCOM I have states a 7350 ft reference for the cruise cabin altitude on + 2.5 hour flights, so 650 ft lower than the 8000 used in the Squaire’s calcs. This would theoretically lead to a 10 seconds longer presumed flight time. However, the point I guess is not so much to determine the flight time, but rather to fit a “deep stall” scenario with the presumed 4-5 minutes of flight after 2:10. It could be and a late realisation of the situation by the crew, and the flight deck workload once they realised, could indeed explain the absence of distress signals.
It could also fit with the “pollution spot”, in the sense that it would be the result of 447 going down. The implicit assumption of the Drift Group report that the spot could be the result of a “voluntary” release of fuel is quite amazing and even absurd, also taking into account that in accordance with FCOM fuel dumps in thunderstorms are forbidden.
Anyhow, IMO even in a deep stall scenario 447 forward velocity is unlikely to have stopped completely and immediately from 2:10. On that basis I still believe she can’t be very close to LKP.
That brings me again to the question of 447’s heading @ the 2:10 position report. I know it was discussed in one of the earlier 447 threads and I recall that the 3nm left offset from UN873’s centreline was not considered significant by most (also based on BEA reporting that 447 was until 2:10 following its intended track), although some (such as mm43) pondered that by then 447 could be in a left hand turn. I don’t remember if SLOP was ever discussed in that connection. The Strategic Lateral Offset Procedure over the Atlantic prescribes flight either on the airway’s centreline, or either 1 nm or 2 nm to the right (in this case to the east). So, in that respect 447’s position @ 2:10 should rather be marked as unusual.
Dutch