Nobody knows, blackbird. The way I see it, we all chose to turn a blind eye to "the chances" when we decided to pursue a career as a pilot, let alone one in the ADF. Statistics of you getting into FSP this year are against you, but that's meaningless, not least of all because the situation in the pool and how it relates to your file is unpredictable and always changing.
If you feel you've got a competitive application then that's the best case scenario given the otherwise complete ambiguity of the process! Good luck, I hope you get your spot.