DenisG;
Would you assume the a/c to have been at FL350 still at time of LKP?
Even if the generally estimated 4 minutes from LKP to impact might be inaccurate, at 7 minutes that would still be a decline rate of 5,000 feet per minute. While making a left bank between 35° and 50° at >607knots (!) (based on 75km from LKP to search area in 4minutes). And then impacting pitch-up, slight bank? - without maydays? Wouldn't there be specific injuries detectable on the bodies at a decline rate like that? Would the crew not have been ordered to caution position before entering MCS at ORARO, as they already passed a little one at SALPU?
If you read the BEA's interim reports, you will discover -
The RTLU was found in its place in the fin and disassembled. An examination was performed at the manufacturer’s and showed that it would allow travel of the rudder measured as 7.9° +/- 0.1°. As an example, at FL350, this travel is obtained for Mach 0.8 +/- 0.004, corresponding to a CAS of 272 +/- 2 kt.
Note: the maximum travel of the rudder is calculated in relation to the airplane configuration, its speed and its Mach number. This travel can be commanded between 4degrees and 35 degrees.
At the time of A/P disconnect, the a/c appears to still have been at FL350. What happened after that is still purely speculation.
The injuries attributed to bodies speak of significant spinal injuries consistent with a high vertical moment on impact.
Regarding entering the 2nd mesoscale event NNW of ORARO, I wouldn't have expected any different response to the situation as that encountered in the first event. It seems that they were not aware of what they were flying into.
There were well over 4,000 posts to the original AF447 thread now in the Tech Log, and approaching 900 in this thread. The questions you are asking have already been posed and debated.
mm43