The original scenario associated with the drawing of the following graphic was outlined in a post to the AF447 thread back in September 2009. However, things have changed and I now propose the following:-
1. Loss of control on penetrating an active mesoscale event.
2. Pitot icing was rapid rather than gradual on account latent heat in updraughts.
3. Overspeed occured.
4. Recovery failed when penetration of a second mesoscale event took place NNW of ORARO.
5. Cabin Vertical Speed was following flameout and stall.
Now that's plenty to keep you going, and here is the graphic:-
mm43