Here's a photo of the Tu-154M cockpit (the aircraft itself) on A.net:
Photos: Tupolev Tu-154M Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net
As you can see, it has significantly more modern technology than the standard Tu-154 cockpit:
Photos: Tupolev Tu-154B-2 Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net
Of course, a (more) modern cockpit fit does not equal CAT III; we don't know what the Polish AF's procedures for low visibility landings are, or whether the acft equipped or crew trained for low visibility approaches.
As for the conspiracy theories about the Russians being involved in foul play, let's leave that kind of nonsense to the conspiracy theorists, some of whom still insist that the USN shot down TW 800. While many may not like Putin, there is a slight difference between him and Stalin ...