With respect Brian Abraham - there's a logical disconnect between the two assertions you make in 2 & 4. If indeed it was a CFIT as you claim to know, how can you purport to know how much fuel was carried with respect to the regulations? The logical consequence of your assertion that it was a CFIT, ie. they are still maneuvering, should be that they were STILL busy attempting approaches into Norfolk, possibly because they maintained an expectation that the weather might improve or, - in fact even STILL had NWWW as an alternate up their sleeve.
BoeingBender I don't see any disconnect at all.
After three approaches one would have thought that things are unlikely to get much better.
If you've been to NF then you will probably know that the reducing temperature will only worsen the situation in the short term therefore the chances of the fog lifting are very unlikely.
Yes it has happened, but would you bet yours and other's life on it ? I wouldn't.
So, if he had the fuel to head off elsewhere then that would have been the time to do it, NOT hang around until you get to fly a submarine.
Surely a decision to ditch would have (given the enormity of the decision) at least been preceded by the MAYDAY call and an approx position of where they planned to deposit the A/C.
All of the factors indicate that the splashdown WAS premature or at the very least unplanned.
Remember, this guy wasn't alone up there...The FO could well have organised all of those things we associate with a planned ditching maneuver.
I could certainly be wrong (have been in the past, many times and sincerely hope I am now) but these realities are hard to walk away from.