Ryanair have said they are going to see a fall in the yeild per pax in the next year. They are going for growth in pax numbers and as a result they need to drop fares. They have only kept total income the same by rougthly carrying 15% more pax at 15% lower fares.
FR are not going to go bust in the short or medium term, they are going to have less income than expenditure i.e. make a loss, in my view. They do have vast assets which will shrink over time as they get trashed. Ryanair will always have a large part of the bottom sector of the market. Easyjet will have a good part of the next sector of the market where fares are higher and less obsure airports are used. Even small amounts of airport departure tax can shrink the bottom of the market. FR have to sell seats below the cost of the tax to get the pax numbers.
my analysis is good enougth to make real money and predict quite a lot of what has happened. The founder of Easyjet was very smart in getting EZJ to slow growth and keep fares up.