Agreed.
I graphed it at work - assuming the 32/16k retention bonus stays after roso, the pay ends up *roughly* similar to the old scheme (minus a few thousand here and there) for 2 guys joining direct entry. The roadshow guys basically sold it as "if I haven't talked you out of signing on by the end, then I have failed". You know its terrible when the people tasked with selling it don't care.
The problem is the uncertainty. Defence has an excellent track record of signing people over to new schemes, only to change the conditions once people have moved over (eg DOHAS). Remember - they never make you sign for a pay rise!
Obviously, the only people who will sign over will be those who hugely benefit from the system enough to justify the risk of a huge paycut next year. Everybody else will stay on the current scheme. This will cost defence in the short term, with savings to come in the longer term.
The treatment of the junior guys is just as important as the bonuses to the senior guys looking at leaving. You can't treat people like dirt their whole career and expect them to stay on +5 yrs with a magical bonus at roso. I'm not sure if it has always been this way, but the conversations at junior aircrew level seems to be which airline you are going to join!!