Amelia Earhart Project in PNG
A37575:
Precisely.
I have written in the website, that trans-Pacific pilots have been telling me exactly what you say since I started enquiring about the Wx out there in 1994. The few PX pilots that have done the ferry jobs from the West coast of the USA have been particularly helpful.
The other thing that should not be forgotten is that in those days Navigators could never tell you "where you are", they could only tell you "where you had been" due to the lag in running the numbers. Noonan also had a habit of only doing a shot every two to three hours and a lot can change in that time.
On her flight, night flying started at around 0730GMT and persisted until she was past the Gilberts until about 1800GMT,over ten hours of darkness.
Throw in all you say about Pacific Wx and combine it with Earhart's radio Tx's of "cloudy and overcast" which started at 1415GMT and you can imagine that Noonan with his experience would probably be mouthing under his breath at Earhart's "press-on-itis". We don't know "how long" it had been cloudy and overcast since she had not been heard since 1030GMT but she said it again after 1415GMT so it had persisted. My plot has them still a long way out when the dawn came at Howland.
When he found the wind at Nukumanu to be 26mph, double the low-end forecast he must have wondered ."...what the hell are we getting into here" and when they were late at the USCG Ontario something should have told them to call it quits and return to Lae and wait for the dawn. The Groundspeeds should have flagged the warning.
Regards,
Dave Billings
Last edited by David Billings; 25th Feb 2018 at 11:40.