Archimedes,
I'll go for an each-way bet.
Carriers to go - carriers will be austere and late
Typhoon to go - Typhoon to be put in to storage
Harrier to go - Harrier to be scaled back
JSF will be late -
Army will be re-focused solely for CI role - Army will be re-focused on Canadian or Dutch model
Commitments will be maintained - commitments will be ramped up.
Trident and petard!
Spot the odd one out?
It's got to be dark blue.