Hi there.
The more I think to the debris location and to the last minutes of the AF 447, more confuse the whole picture becomes. Here is an agregated map from different sources (brezilian AF, NESDIS and OSCAR/NOAA, tim Vasquez analyze,...).
http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/6099/crashsite2k.jpg
OSCAR - Ocean Surface Currents Analyses - Realtime
QuikSCAT
The surface current and wind fields are derived from satellite observation from June the 1st to June 12 (see Quickscat and NOAA databases): the currents rotate between 3°N and 4°N from a S-SW-->N-NE direction to a S-SE-->N-NW direction and remain <0.10m/s. The drifting buoys can give clues for the following days. The wind was oriented to the west, between 4-5 kts and 15 kts. You can get clues about the offshore swell via EVISAR/ASAR (S-SW-->N-NE direction).
Atlantic Ocean / Swell animation from ENVISAT ASAR instrument / Movies / View / Data / CERSAT - Le CERSAT
I don't get this:
If the AF 447 had been in nominal cruise speed between 02:10Z and 02:14Z (above mach 0.8 ?), it would have been too far to the north to explain the first body/debris location of June 6 ? (to be found where they were found, they would have to drift toward the west, but in this area, the currents and the swell were oriented toward the N-NE).
Would it suggest that between 02:10Z and 02:14Z, the AF 447 was already in big trouble, loosing rapidly altitude, that it never got out from the mesoscale convective system and crashed just after the last ACAR between the two red points ? (possibly just exiting the MSC system)
Under this hypothesis, the drift between June 1-June 6 (from crash area to first boby/debris) would have been largely smaller in 5 days than the drift between June 6-June 9 in 3 days (then from June 10 and June 15, at W-NW of TASIL in the search area, is oriented toward the NW. The satellite time series show that the current speed increased a bit between 6 and 12 but only to reach 0.12 m/s: it does not explain the different drifts by far): does it suggest that the bodies and debris (recovered between the 6 and 9 of June) were initially dispersed ?
Hope these are not silly/already answered questions.
Jeff