Main Gear Boxes and The Grand Lottery
We have had two Main Gear Box failures in the past few weeks that destroyed two aircraft and killed thirty three people causing much sorrow and loss to the families and friends.
Knowing Gann, I have to accept things like this will befall us as we pursue our career in aviation but yet we can question the reasons as to why they happen.
Is it "Fate"....a simple roll of the dice or are we assisted by the system letting us down?
Some questions that came to mind while thinking about this situation....
What does "Extremely remote" mean, and how was it missed by EC? By the DGAC? By Sikorsky? By the FAA?
That gear inside the 332's transmission is a "Primary Structural Element" and as such was certified in the 332L2 and the EC 225 as having a failure probability that was "extremely remote".
That means the probability of failure is less than one in a billion - a fleet of a thousand aircraft flying 1000 hours per year flying for 1000 years should not experience such a failure.
Yet, in spite of Eurocopter's promise and the aircraft certification, the gear broke, suddenly, and with little if any warning.
Clearly they missed it - both Eurocopter and the JAA/Easa, precisely as the oil leakage path on the S92 was missed by Sikorsky and the FAA.
How does one miss such things? Is there a blame? or is this something we have to live with?
Last edited by SASless; 11th Apr 2009 at 21:35.
Reason: For clarity