Well I guess I made a rod for my own back there by allowing your original mistake in talking loosely about the Times. The two JSF refs are from the Sunday Times which shares a website but is completely different from the Times, and that article in the Times - rather than the Sunday Times - was by a business correspondent who didnt bother mentioning that unless all the main countries agree to a reduction they are all bound to pay for every aircraft they originally ordered whether or not they want them. Oddly, given the lock-in was designed by us to keep them in the deal, while slapping them about the head repeatedly for daring to think twice, the Germans seem very reluctant to let us off the hook on that one.
Whether or not the guys on the ground know anything, JSF is for the chop. The defence chiefs persuaded Des to take a plan to chop it to Gordon and he turned it down flat because he didnt want any public defence cuts. Hutton has obviously taken the job on the basis that the whole business side of the MoD needs sorting and has clearly persuaded Gordon to bite the bullet. Hutton was very clear, one or more big procurement projects will have to go. That is finally someone in government or at the top of the MoD actually admitting that there is just a small cash problem.
Hutton is surprisingly frank about the shortage of money, making it clear he plans to axe one or more big procurement projects.
“We’ve got to make ends meet,” he says. He admits this means “some changes on the procurement side”.
He won’t be drawn on detail, but insiders believe his comments spell the end of the £9 billion joint strike fighter (JSF) jump-jet project. Plans for 25 transport aircraft for the RAF are also likely to be at risk. Some other big projects, however, such as the Eurofighter and the Astute submarine, are just too costly – both politically and financially – to abandon at this stage.
“There’s precious little point in cancelling a contract if it ends up costing more as a result. I’d rather have the kit than the liability,” Hutton says.
It can't be Typhoon because of the lock-in deal. It won't be the carriers themselves because that would mean major loss of face not to mention major loss of jobs in Gordon's constituency. It can't be the T45s, we are just too far down the line on those. Future Lynx is an option but that would put Westlands down the tubes, the Italians would pull out straight away and Labour constituencies in the south-west would be effected, and anyway we have a dire shortage of helicopters. It can't be Astute because we are too far down the line there and anyway we need the seven attack subs and the four nuclear subs to keep the UK submarine industry going. Given that Hutton is MP for Barrow, I dont really see messing that up as an option. You could argue that all the latest armoured vehicles the army has make FRES irrelevant but we still need new armoured reconnaissance vehicles, Scimitar is dead on its feet. The A400 is a distinct possibility - cancelling it will be cheap - but won't on its own save enough money.
JSF on the other had just got 25 per cent more expensive thanks to the financial crash, working out how much that extra cost will be is an interesting one given that the dollar price is going up month on month and no-one at Lockheed can tell you how much it will actually cost when it is finally built, and there's that little matter of those numbskulls on the hill who think we Brits are dangerous lefties who cant be trusted with the technical secrets of an aircraft we're supposed to be building together.
Then add in BAE Systems being asked to work out whether some of our Eurofighters can't be marinised and surprise, surprise coming up with the bullish answer: "Oh yes". I'm afraid it doesnt really matter what the sceptics on pprune think, or indeed how much more experience and know-how they have in landing on carriers than anyone making a decision. This is only going to go one way.
As I said, forget JSF, it's already gone.