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Old 28th Aug 2008, 12:57
  #1152 (permalink)  
justme69
 
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Unfortunately I have not seen "first hand" the account of any witness mentioning exactly how long the take off seemed to them. Only the words of news reporters that have spoken to them. The ones that noticed the maneuver, said they felt "it took too long".

Putting it all together from the different sources, there is some evidence that: rolling on the ground took "a bit longer than usual" and nose angle of rotation was "weird".

But there is no statements I've found of how long each part of the process took.

Then again, since the security tape seems to only show the final 7-8 seconds of the take-off and no (reliable) direct witness I know of noticed precisely the whole maneuver (from the outside) and the survivors inside are naturally imprecise, I don't think we can know for sure.

But you can i.e. work on the scenario of slightly short calculations for weight/thrust. In that case, indeed the plane would have less air resistance than normal from the failure to lower the flaps (enough)/no slat, but also would accelerate a bit slower than "normal" as the thrust requested was a bit "understimated" for the weight. One effect might cancel the other and the length of strip used to VR may have seem "normal enough" to the crew.

Then you start rotation and the nose gets on a weird angle. The excess drag also makes it take longer to take-off. Thrust is on the low side of things. Air density is low. Tail wind. Nose angle steep-ish. No or insufficient flaps/slats.

They finally do take off, but rotation took significantly longer (total t/o maneuver took some estimated 500m more than it should've).

But they quickly (reportly some 3-4 seconds later), perhaps just out of ground-effect, find a wing stalling and roll to the left. From that point on the witnesses speak of a steep roll to the right and then fall.

We will have to wait for the FDR data as we are talking about not-extreme differences from normal expected performance and borderline out of specs. The crew may or may not have noticed well in advance enough what was happening before they had to struggle with uncomanded rolls and stall alarms.

Last edited by justme69; 28th Aug 2008 at 13:18.
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