Its a "no brainer" - there will definately be a future pilot surplus. Trouble is waiting around the corner for all of us in the form of a full blown recession - the state of the housing market has always has always been a good indicator as to how things are gooing to look in the aviation industry. and at the moment its not looking good - rising mortgage costs and a stagnant market with people still deluding themselves that their properties are worth what they think they are.
The credit crunch, the high levels of personal debt, future economic uncertainty, inflationary pressures, Energy and oil prices, etc etc are very worrying.
Its true that people will continue to fly as they see it as an accepted method of transport in our modern age - the fact is they will travel much less and this will have an impact within the industry -its just a matter of time before one of the smaller low costs goes under .
Its not all bad news as history will repeat itself when the next boom cycle comes around - we could be in for a long wait though!