Chimbu, lets come at this from a different angle.
Pertinent facts.
* Rudd government elected on platform of IR reform Nov 07.
* IR Transition bill mooted to be passed by Easter 08. Reforms include union involvement in negotiations with >50% workplace agreement & "Good Faith" bargaining.
* AIPA gains coverage of all Qantas Group pilots late Dec 07 in AIRC.
* Liberal opposition proposes blocking passage of the IR transition bill. Likely to be stalled until at least July 08. Horse trading with independents to ensure passage likely or double dissolution election.
* J* pilots vote on EBA4 some 8 months prior to expiry end January 08.
* Liberal opposition announces passage of Rudd transition bill by Easter, Feb 08.
Given the above facts, a plausible scenario could include an early EBA4 vote as a contingency by J* management to exclude AIPA for 5 years. If the EBA4 deal is as sweet as some contend, why is it so? Why lock the company in for 5 years if things are going to tank? Why the rush?
Is it possible that J* management are buying a non-union collective agreement while they can? Ryanair are fiercely non-union, & I would hypothesise that the current J* CEO, ex-Ryanair holds similar views.
Further, is it possible the deal was improved BECAUSE of the looming 'AIPA threat'? If the AIRC decision went against AIPA to gain Qantas Group coverage do you think the offer would be as good as the one on offer? That right, the presence of AIPA in the wings may have already benefited the J* pilots.
Yes AIPA may not have been able to negotiate more money out of J*, but should the majority of J* pilots wish to utilise its services as a bargaining agent, under new legislation AIPA will have a seat at the table on their behalf. AIPA may have been able to negotiate other lifestyle & career conditions, which to many are just as important as money. Some issues that are likely to cause discontent include: out of seniority training, DEC's, hotel accommodation, base transfers, rostering & the group opportunity list. Are any of these addressed in the current EBA4?
If AIPA does negotiate on behalf of the J* pilots, it would be a respondent to the EBA, and can therefore protect EBA conditions on behalf of its members.
The current J* CEO is on record as saying that he intends to get 5 to 7 years out of his pilots before they are burnt out. Offering more money now to get a non-union collective agreement may allow him to get his wish, in effect saving him more money in lifestyle, training & rostering issues over the lifetime of the agreement.
Viewed through this prism, is it possible that this is a final attempt by J* management to exclude unions from their workforce before the window-of-opportunity shuts in less than a month with the likely passage of the IR transition legislation?
I would posit that those pilots putting themselves forward to sign AWA's based on EBA4 have no desire for the 'lifestyle' or career issues, they simply want the bucks or to ingratiate themselves with management. Just like the complaints about the old AIPA being the B747 Captains club, for exactly the same reasons.