COROWACOMET
Very nice of you to quote me out of context. If you seriously think I am saying new technologies will not emerge, then perhaps you have an issue of comprehension.
If you read my post in its entirety you will see that my gist is that new technologies will emerge, but only when economically feasible. The problem is that energy companies can't be convinced to invest heavily until they are sure the returns are greater than for oil. For this to happen, I say again, oil prices must be very high for a very long time. And when they finally make that investment decision, the time lag involved to filter through to the aviation industry on a large scale ensures the new technology has no relevance in this working lifetime - yours or mine. In the meantime, demand for discretionary travel will plummet, taking our jobs with it.
So I say again, it is the time lag that will kill us.
If you are going to quote me, please maintain some sort of remote linkage to the context of what was posted.
WANNABEBIGGLES
Your analogies are creative, but somehow lack relevance. What link do the dotcom boom and the real estate boom have to oil? Therefore how could they be used to counter my argument that oil prices will kill the aviation industry taking our jobs with it?
You are correct in saying the price of other transportation modes will go up. However your implication that people will still travel in similar numbers by air because the cost of aviation relative to other modes will be the same is fundamentally flawed. Discretionary travel is extremely price elastic. As such, basic economic principles dictates there will be an oil price point where discretionary travel will reduce dramatically, both by car and by air.
You also counter by saying industries evolve, and of course if you read this and previous posts you can only conclude that I agree with you. The problem is, and I say again, the time lag will kill us.
GUYS AND GIRLS
The airlines dazzle you with shiny jets and cadetships (paid out of your own pockets) because they need you here and now. But will they still need you when the industry is half its current size in the year 2020? Who will take care of you you then? Airlines are very good at telling you what you all want to hear. I am telling you what you don't. This affects me just as much as you. Sometimes things can't and won't work out like you want it. Sometimes you cannot have that ice cream. For that I'm am sorry. But this is a story that MUST be told.
OI
Last edited by Ochre Insider; 18th Nov 2007 at 19:43.