Monday morning and the armchair quarter backs are in full swing!
(1) PJ2, you say, the whole thing will be academic shortly - we'll know where the actual scene was, etc. Mate - the people who need to know already know where the crash site is, which rwy they were using, etc. All this analysis with colour pics, lines, etc, sits up there with people who slow down in their cars passing a car accident. Frankly, it's pointless speculating - what we do know is that the aircraft crashed, people are dead. Drawing lines on photos is pretty "academic".
(2) Trying to analyse METARs, ATIS's etc is similarly pointless. Anyone who has flown into Thailand knows that actual conditions and reported METARs or ATIS's can be like chalk and cheese. I too thought the METARs looked pretty benign - but then I remembered the location... the country. Armchair analysis from afar achieves nothing. The FDR and the airspeed/ground speed parameters, plus any recorded weather parameters from ATC are what's needed. Can't analyse that via PPrune.
My broad point is: once again there is way too much Monday morning analysis going on about yet another LoCo accident. I'm actually GLAD the media doesn't do this sort of analysis - can you imagine the waffle that would fill the rags then? And as professional pilots we really should be refraining from speculating.
Let's pray for the souls and leave it to the experts on the scene to figure out.