If there is ANY doubt about the WX just do the published approach. Quite simple really.
Even with a flyover of the aid to land in the opposite direction to your inbound track, compare being clean/near clean overhead to gear down/flap 15 for the DME arrival (followed by dirty circuit) and possible missed approach from same?
Takes all the guesswork out of it for everyone.
Have been caught out myself with "ambitious" Tower wx observations. I'm sure they are just trying to help but give me the instument procedure any day.
Done more than my share of DME arrivals and circling approaches so don't need (read want) any more.
KISS
