PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - UK unveils new next generation fighter jet, the 'Tempest'
Old 11th May 2023, 07:38
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Easy Street
 
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Quite. The idea of including assorted weapons and previous-generation equipment costs in the investment total only creates a relevant comparison if the same philosophy was applied to the cited development costs for previous combat aircraft. I'd hazard a guess that that was not the case: "let's inflate our development cost figures by adding on every conceivable ancestor and ancillary capability", said no-one ever.

The debate about whether 6th gen fighters due to enter service circa 2040 should have a pilot is one thing (highly contestable IMO... look at the recent sharp uptick in AI progress and consider that 2040 is still 17 years away). But to my mind it helps clarify things if we ask whether 7th gen fighters are likely to need one. If you accept that's vanishingly unlikely, then going all-in on drone development and accepting we might be forced to buy an American piloted 6th gen export variant if it turns out to have been the wrong decision suddenly becomes a much more tolerable risk. The rationale for investing huge sums in domestic piloted 6th gen combat aircraft expertise then looks much less about preserving strategic capabilities for the future, and much more of a business proposition. But a business proposition requires an honest view of likely export numbers, with full consideration of unit price competiveness and the exportability constraints likely to accompany the LO and AESA technology required to satisfy the prime customer requirements. Not a straightforward argument at all.
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