Originally Posted by
laviation
If we're talking a reasonable plan for VS at MAN:
Currently - 3x A333 and 1x A350 based. Current destinations include BGI, MCO, JFK and ATL. ISB terminated after S23.
Atlanta is a complete mess. 7x weekly was planned in the ACL S23 report, however this route is ditched for 8 weeks starting soon, because of 'piloting issues'. Delta need to take this route and fast, before VS ditch it completely. In a dream world Delta would take on the route beginning in June, give or take a few weeks, with a 767 or A330, although I think W23/S24 is more likely for this. Immediately this frees up an aircraft.
Virgin are taking on 17 A330neos. They have just received their 4th, VEII, a couple of days ago. VS have 10 A330-300s as of now. 3 are based at MAN. Once they get enough A330neos, it makes good sense to send 3 or 4 of these older 330s to Manchester, instead of scrapping them off. These aircraft are only around 10-12 years old.
So, what could be done with a 7 or 8 strong hub of A330 at MAN?
Virgin had 6 aircraft at Manchester pre-covid. Routes missing from that time are seasonal LAS and LAX. They would be reinstated immediately. 5x weekly each for the summer and 3-4 weekly in the winter seems right, which takes up roughly 1 and a half units.
Delhi and Mumbai were planned for 2020. These are very logical additions from a Skyteam point of view. Star Alliance Air India will start this route very soon. 5 a week to both destinations, year round, will fill every time. A mix of VFR customers from the catchment area, and even some VFR from the US could connect JFK-MAN-DEL.. This once again takes up roughly an aircraft and a half, so this leaves one more.
That is all pre-covid operated & planned routes covered. We still have an unfilled aircraft, so where could it fly?
Islamabad: Meh. Virgin will not operate to Pakistan even from LHR after this summer.
Austin, Texas: Really out there, but would actually do really well in my opinion. In recent years I have noticed quite a lot of Brits moving to Texas. Furthermore, Singapore's IAH route does quite well being a large A350 from a regional UK city to Texas. Austin is a very nice upcoming city, specifically in the tech sector. 2-4 per week and could pair up with another route.
San Francisco: A TCX route left unserved. It did well for them, why wouldn't it now?
Boston: Most likely out of any listed here, however it won't be on Virgin imho. A daily Delta 757 (as planned for Summer 2020) think will come 2024 to combat EIUK.
Montego Bay / Punta Cana: I feel as if one of these would be nice to pair SFO/AUS on this final aircraft. I flew with TCX to PUJ a few years before their demise and it was rammed full.
Overall, a dream scenario for VS at Manchester would be to see one of the T2 piers chock a block with their A330s, almost as if you couldn't tell the difference to being at LHR T3 lol.
The A333 leases were largely taken on because of 787 delays and compensation. The bonds sureties and contracts may well only allow single short extension of months with a mass of caveats and balloon fees.
Extension and or outright purchase will be completely and financially reckless to the bottom line. As leases expire and the 339 fleet gradually come online they will begin to leave the fleet for new lives or a period of retirement.
A ten year plus 2 extension places the time frame for withdrawals to start this coming winter and through to spring 2025 and in no coincidence with the 338 deliveries.
Caveat two are technically operated by Virgin International on Caribbean routes from Heathrow .
As said earlier I am currently very disappointed with Virgin Atlantic ( we know they survived financial melt down by a skin of their teeth and a bucket load of money from Atlanta) they remain unsure about their future direction of travel.
They lost the boutique selling points some years back, they backfill for Delta ( poorly imho) , whilst the Mouseland ops generate the daily revenues for the group .
Without valuable cruise traffic most of the Islands wouldn’t be viable either
Beyond that they are pretty small fry in the global market.
I think I have stated my opinion above ; opportunities from Manchester are now limited and the “temporary” suspension of Atlanta just further highlights my concern.
Ultimately I agree that Delta would be far better recovering Atlanta on own metals; the 764 is perfectly suited as well as for any potential Boston service in the mid term.
All that said Edinburgh and VisitScotland have taken the baton firmly away from MAG for the foreseeable.