There is an impending capacity war coming, I think July we will see this. Fares will drop to pre COVID levels the question is how low can the likes of Rex and Bonza go and be prepared to stay that low.
I think even the airlines analysts would have a hard time at the moment working out how the landscape will change in the medium term. We have lost a low cost carrier with near 20 aircraft, market share replaced with Rex, Bonza, Alliance. Jetstar would have gained margin improvement from the Tiger exit, will trend backwards in some Bonza regions (very minimal) but still remains strong without a Tiger replacement on most of its comparable network. Bonza has said they will get as big as the market allows it. Very hard to see that getting past 15.
Capacity wars are margin draining. Something Bain won't want to get involved in. I really don't think we will see that much capacity coming in, Virgin and Jetstar will soon be receiving one aircraft per month, all indications is that Jetstar are sending a A320 out west as each A321 arrives. Virgin have a whole pile of ageing aircraft to deal with also.