Originally Posted by
Sk1schoolsam
I appreciate the point your making, and there’s now hiding from the fact that there will be an impact however as seen in every other recession, not everyone is as affected as you describe.
Your view seams very outbound westerly focused not taken into account the flow of traffic originating from North America in your statement where the I would argue there will remain sustainable wealth and source of east bound traffic. We’re not shutting shop and pulling down the shutters.
And then you only need to look at Tyanairs CEO press yesterday for test another different perspective on short haul- he’s predicting growth.
Sure there will still be some demand, its not "lockdown Mk.2", but I don't believe that in my lifetime we have seen such a shock to household budgets. The USA is suffering inflation not too dissimilar to that which the UK is suffering, though the hefty fall in sterling's value will negate some of that, and unlike other cities in UK, Edinburgh has a pull not too dissimilar to London for North American tourists so nobody would suggest for a moment that travel is going to dry up. The market is however likely to be soft, much softer than 2022 when much travel was bolstered by deferred trips from 2020 and 2021.
If I were managing an airport, or indeed an airline at present I would be looking at matching capacity to likely demand so as to maintain yield, rather than chucking on oodles of extra seats that in the end get flogged off simply to maintain turnover, or negate losses. For the avoidance of doubt I am doing neither!
As for Ryanair, apart from the odd Brexit related hissy fit, has anyone ever heard Michael O'Leary not be bullish about passenger numbers? They can afford to be since if bookings don't meet their required level the airline will just summarily can the route and offer refunds or re-routing which is easier logistically for a short haul carrier to do than a long haul one, where leisure bookings are likely to be made very much further forward.
I just think that all these supposed capacity increases and hoped for expansion is more laced with unfounded optimism and in the cold light of day Summer 2023 could look horrible. I hope sincerely my fears are well wide of the mark.