Originally Posted by
tdracer
I've posted this several times previously, but the story goes something like this:
Boeing was working hard on an all new 737 replacement aircraft - with a planned introduction around 2020 (I knew people working on it). Then Airbus launched the A320 NEO and started collecting huge numbers of orders. This caught Boeing completely by surprise - had Boeing stayed the course, with the NEO entering service around 2015, it would have meant conceding nearly the entire narrow body market to Airbus for ~5 years. With the resources necessary to support the 787 and 747-8 introductions (remember, both the 787-8 and 747-8 were certified and entered service in late 2011), there simply were not the resources to bring the timeline for a new narrowbody forward. Worse, even after the new Boeing narrow body entered service, it would take several years to increase the production rate up to the ~50/month that the A320 and 737 were being produced. In short, no matter how good the new Boeing narrow body might be, it would mean conceding a roughly 5,000 unit advantage to the A320 NEO.
That was simply too bitter a pill for Boeing to swallow - they scrambled to find something they could get to market (relatively) quickly and minimize the damage from the NEO - and came up with the MAX.
Now, with the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, staying the course with an all new aircraft may well have been a far superior solution, that was far from obvious 11 years ago.
Yep, that was the "insider" story. You see, people carefully read (and remember) your contributions.
My general comment is, this whole derailed earlier. When you sell airplanes (or cars, or whatever), you know, the stuff you sell, does have a life-cycle. And a proper company (should) anticipate on these life-cycles and be ready to initiate a new design very early on. 45+ Years ago, I was working at a large copier firm and, they did their marketing for future generation machine-concepts with a time horizon of 5-10 years (The real marketing, not the "promotion side", but think/anticipate what the future will bring, etc).