STW, your talking about a free market with no outside influencers. You give no value to a HKG ATPL with 4000 hours and 500 in company aircraft. Your not taking into account that it takes a cadet 8-10 years to get to that experience level the way we log SO and FO relief time. You assume a mobility of work force that doesn't exist at the moment.
On a different note, I counted back 50 or so of my last conversations on WhatsApp. 12 guys gone, or resigned already, 3 say going by end of the year and 16 staying or I've got no idea what they're up to. Lets call it half leaving, and this sample would average about the 20 years of service. The head of the mother company wasn't sniffing around the 3rd/9th floor last week handing out Freddo frogs. Suspect he was asking WTF is going on with his peoples investments capability to spool up when required.