It's lights out time folks. It's already upon us, just not visible yet (pardon the pun).
I've been involved in the delivery of upstream energy projects for more than 35 years, in almost every corner of the globe, however I speak as an observer, rather than claiming any authority. I think we’ve been asleep at the wheel whilst we careen ungracefully towards an energy future that will divide our population into the energy haves and the have nots, as the cost of conventional energy increases due to dwindling supplies. Fortunately our climate extremes are benign enough for us to survive this, mostly. But it’s going to be uncomfortable for some and very, very divisive for our society.
Based on this election we seem to have convinced a majority that conventional energy is totally bad and conversely renewable sources are totally good, that green power will get the job done and all we need to do is have political will and the rest will sort itself out.
This demonstrates no understanding of exactly how dependent we are on existing conventional energy and just how intensive, difficult, costly and prolonged it is to find and exploit new sources of conventional energy. There are many reasons for this lack of understanding, perhaps best discussed separately. But the reality in my view is that very soon, there will be a widening gulf in society between those that can afford to maintain the standard of living we have enjoyed, and those that cannot.
This will include costs for transportation, lighting and heating/cooling. We are seeing this play out in Europe, and coupled with the interruption to supply chains and food distribution, the future is possibly grim for them. In case you overlooked this, we have just had two energy wholesalers collapse on the eastern Seaboard because they can’t afford to finance the escalating cost of the gas they buy from the producers.
It's my contention that we have to preserve, promote and maintain our reliance on conventional energy in this country until we are able to securely and seamlessly transition to a fully renewable energy supply, or bear the consequences as outlined above. This includes efforts to secure energy independence and disconnecting from overseas supply chains.
The populist mindset that supports prevention of any new conventional energy developments, banning new oil and gas, no more coal mines etc. - the thinking that these well intentioned actions will simply drive investment in renewables and all will be ok condemns us to switching the lights out and walking a lot more. It's probably too late already. It is a deeply flawed position to take, based on a lack of comprehension of how things actually work.
So for me the election has highlighted either this is a price the majority are prepared to pay, or they are completely blind to our utter dependence on conventional energy. Perhaps many are very willing to accept a significant decline in living standards, but I doubt it.
This is to not even contemplate the smashing apart of manufacturing and industry in this country as costs rise, and the total reliance on overseas supply chains that are so vulnerable to disruption. We're are 14 days away for fuel rationing at any given moment of any day, 24/7 as it currently stands.
I'm all for taking sane, logical steps towards a carbon free future but unless we get the optics and the politics right, you'll be wishing you has bought that 50 acre property outside of town where you can be off grid in some comfort and burn some tree’s for your heating in winter. We're in a downward spiral of increasing energy cost, dwindling supplies, a declining industrial and manufacturing base and without the political skills to manage a transition towards renewable and zero emission energy.
All of this is rolling downhill towards us, gathering speed whilst we argue about government subsidies for electric vehicles, wind turbines and solar panels for goodness sake.
It’s going to be interesting.