Originally Posted by
ATC Watcher
Don't underestimate the ingenuity of airlines under an embargo . As said earlier Iran managed successfully since over 40 years to buy and get a fleet of Airbus, Boeing , ATRs and Fokker flying ,, mainly due to the use of third counties sympathetic to Iran providing the aircraft , the spares, the software updates etc.. . Russia is a bit more isolated at the moment but if for instance China supports them , they can continue to fly for a long time, and when this war is over and sanctions lifted , they can , just like before use their Soviet and recent Russian made aircraft to fly internationally.
The other plausible scenario is of course a regime change in Russia, the past is forgotten , and the West happily sells them new western aircraft ., just like in 1990 ...
There just will be the very insignificant and teeny tiny problem of the airlines in fact having defaulted on their lease contracts. One thing that is very much different between Iran and Russia, is the fact that russian airlines have leased around three quarters of their fleets, mainly from international leasing companies. Which is not the case in Iran. Of course, that can be solved, given enough hard cash (rubles won't do) and the possibility to transfer that, once the sanctions are lifted that is.