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Old 22nd Jan 2022, 07:16
  #61 (permalink)  
43Inches
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Aus
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Sorry Eclan you are way off the mark, as I said IF you are infected with Covid, not for the total population, which is the issue here for vaxxed vs not.

As per the chart on Page 7 of the document

Vaxxed is 1% of cases hospitalised vs 8.9% of cases that are unvaxxed, that's a 9 times higher rate.

Vaxxed is .1% rate of ICU vs 1.5% of cases that are unvaxxed, thats a rate of 15 times higher.

And last of all you had to do some maths, because so few of the vaxxed cohort have died that it leaves you with a % well below .1%;

Vaxxed is 0.02% death rate vs 0.6% death rate, ie 30 times higher death rate.

BTW when considering stats the graph on page 7 is the only one relevant here as it covers the period from November 21 to January 22, therefore covering the figures during the latest outbreak.

SO sorry mate you are in with the amateur brigade in interpreting medical statistics and showing yourself as lacking.

I think you need to rethink how you interpret statistics as you have to match relative cohorts, the reason you say rates as XX times is because simply if you were to extrapolate the unvaxxed cases out to the same as the vaxxed cases you would have 23 times the number of deaths as the current vaxxed cohort. The reason I came up with 30 is because of rounding small numbers that multiply large figures ie .02 vs 0.6 when its more like .025% or so, in any case 23 times is still a huge rate more. It means that if the unvaxxed cohort were the size of the vaxxed cohort 1604 would have died instead of 67. WRT hospitalisations if the vaxxed cohort were unvaxxed the hospitalisation numbers would have been 23,000 vs 2,600 as is now. I think that should have made it easy enough to understand.

And before there's any piping up about 'but that's only for the infected people' etc etc, we are measuring the effectiveness of the vaccines vs the virus, so you have to compare statistics from only the infected population. Those 'yet' to be infected should follow a similar pattern. Other things that are not considered here are how many of the 'unvaxxed' had previous covid infection and also how many of the vaxxed were exposed to the virus but did not contract it.

People who have bad covid experiences usually have other conditions, which often means hospitalisation. That should be obvious by now.
Again we are comparing the same thing with only one major variation, vaccination status, so the rate difference between them is the effectiveness of the vaccine. Both cohorts will have a mix of conditions and ages.

They don’t want anyone getting the “wrong idea” about an inconvenient stat which doesn’t suit the narrative. By default though they’ve illustrated where the greatest risk is.

Of course the stats above are almost entirely related to Delta and not the current strain so the numbers for the current times will be even more balanced.

Some condensed definitions from your document to help illustrate the misinformation:
That statement was in regard to that final graph, which you used in error, if you noticed the vaccinated cohort was only 6600 or so, meaning mainly the aged and so in in the initial tranche of vaccinations, so they are warning that in that graph the distribution of cohort ages is inappropriately matched to be of statistical benefit.

They are still allowing the unqualified and the wilfully pigheaded to incorrectly presume covid caused each reported death.
Again irrelevant to this convo as above, both cohorts are subject to the same assessment of 'died with covid' etc.

Last edited by 43Inches; 22nd Jan 2022 at 07:56.
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