PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Is Ukraine about to have a war?
View Single Post
Old 18th Jan 2022, 09:15
  #609 (permalink)  
ORAC
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 17,393
Received 1,586 Likes on 723 Posts
Well there’s good news and bad news.

The good news, if you go back a few posts, is that the one th8ng that Russia and the USA agreed is tha5 neither side would use nukes over any war in Europe.

The bad news is that that gets rid of the escalation ladder that was implicit in Flexible Response with battlefield nukes under battalion level control. And, whilst forces on both sides are far lower than during the Cold War, NATO forces, as revealed in war games, would be obliterated in attempt to defend the Baltic States, and possibly well beyond.

No one is asserting NATO would go to war over Kiev, but it is committed to d9 so over Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius.

Going back to the Yes Prime Minister deterrent scenario. Would the UK or France go nuclear in defence of any or all of them?

Which, of course, is why the Baltic states and Poland are so insistent they want more NATO troops deployed forward to where they would be a5 risk and provide a deterrent to attack.
ORAC is offline