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Old 10th Dec 2021, 15:25
  #56 (permalink)  
safetypee
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: UK
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Managing uncertainty

Nowadays it is rare for accidents or incidents to have a simple or dominant contribution (a very ‘safe’ industry), thus it necessary to consider a wide range of contributing factors, however unlikely.
More often, particularly with web based forums there is a tendency to reduce situations to black or white positions, and with hindsight conclude that ‘it’ was obvious. These reflect inherent human bias which may not help with the learning required for future operations.

An alternative approach is to consider what the crew did to recover from an unwanted condition, what were the factors which ‘switched on’ a change of plan, what differed from the situation commencing with a discontinued approach to that in recovering from an unintended flight path. Awareness, thoughts, actions, and the many influences on those, from wherever or whenever they originated.

Start by considering the crew as an asset, how they avoided an accident in that type of aircraft, at that airport - context; an everyday activity, operating in varied and changing circumstances. In such situations there may be no simple answer; many opinions, viewpoints, experiences (as in this thread), but not a ‘solution’. At best, aspects which might improve operations, but without assurance of success.

The need is for us to manage the uncertainties in operation, and the uncertainty of our thoughts, before, during, and after an event.
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