I’d have thought it would turn rapidly to dog poo, the west cannot really back down and would honour its commitments to the Ukraine, because if they do not it will send signals to Russia it could act carte blanche as it did in The Crimea and Georgia.
One gets the feeling this is Putin’s one chance, the country has grown rich and turned itself around from bankruptcy using those riches from his gas reserves to modernise his military, threatening to put the squeeze on the wests energy supplies is once only threat, as the west once bitten will shift away from reliance on his gas reserves and become more independent resulting in a reduction in his countries earning potential.