Originally Posted by
Ladloy
Vic modelling on the roadmap shows peak of 4500 daily cases and 2200 deaths by January. Imagine delta with no vaccines.
Rubbish modelling, not "enveloped" by a comparable reality in say Malta, Denmark (etc), or even UK. Malta running at about 1 death p.w., Transpose to Vic pro-rata to population that is 10 p.w throw in fudge factor lets say 30. As a pro analyst/mathematician (incl COVID) such dumb projection (or mis-interpretation of a scenario by the media) sh**ts me to death. Several sets of modellers in Au have trouble exercising their theory beyond what a simple spreadsheet can manage, they can't handle time-varying vax rates and are basically modelling long-run steady state on the edge of in-control say 80% vax 18+.
There may be a few hundred deaths, a few dozen shockers but otherwise the people who pass were close to edge anyway. Vic roadmap is too slow and even over the past 4-5 days compliance has visibly slipped... Dan will have a severe crisis of authority before 23 Oct. That is a reality as important as the physics of disease transmission, and must be worked within.
Should be dropping outside masks immediately and permitting workplaces to be at or above 1/3 full if majority fully vaxxed.