Originally Posted by
Xeptu
My best guess! Most of us expect to be vaccinated and at least 80% of us in the first quarter of 2022, that's both doses and time to be deemed effectively protected. I would expect masks and whatever safety procedures to be in place by then. I would expect to see domestic travel to rise progressively to around 60% of precovid capacity and International up to around 40% by end 2023. All that assuming there is no breakout strain that renders the vaccine ineffective and the long term implications of the virus do not effect life expectancy, reproduction or any significant disability. Should any of those things become apparent, vaccinated or not, then I would expect the borders to remain restricted both internally and externally in some significant way.
I will certainly not be flying anywhere, internationally or domestically while the threat of a lockdown is in place. A lockdown that can take place at any time and go on for an indefinite period. Same for border closures. I will also not be booking any theatre or other tickets or be booking any hotels within a driving distance. And I suspect many will be in the same mindset.
so good luck with your 60% prediction.