Fire & ice starts with ", there is a serious risk that Moscow may take aggressive action against the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia" as the Conflict Scenario and then discusses the Baltic and goes on to suggest the Russians will grab N Norway
The first is a possibility but the second seems to be a bit far fetched - the Russians have nowhere near the capability they had in the area in say the mid 1980's - people on here have posted links in the last year showing some of their bases have effectively been under reconstruction for decades with little sign of completion