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Old 7th Aug 2021, 09:03
  #7021 (permalink)  
43Inches
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Aus
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If you’re referring to your post #7020 and the excerpt from the Lancet where you claim the absolute vaccine reduction risk (ARR) is around 0.84-% and therefore 25.78 million Australians will be infected despite being vaccinated?

Then you’ve totally, totally taken that study the wrong way and blown those numbers out of proportion, again, here’s a debunking of your point:

Fact Check-Why Relative Risk Reduction, not Absolute Risk Reduction, is most often used in calculating vaccine efficacy
That's what I was trying to get at earlier, I couldn't work out what all the mass of numbers were about and they made no sense. It seemed like half a data dump taken out of context.

The other issue of un-accounted for virus in the community and the seroprevelance rate. To have the IFR drop to .23% that would assume in the US for instance that there is 10 times the cases in the community over documented.

The seroprevelance rate study in Sydney found the rate to be barely 3 x the notified cases and that was from pretty sparse data, only 38 positives in 5000 tests. So that could possibly drop the current CFR from 2.6 to just over 0.8% IFR.

If you applied IFR to Influenza it would be like 0.0001%. Calculating IFR is basically witchcraft and educate guesswork due to trying to know what you don't know, if you knew, it would be CFR.

Last edited by 43Inches; 7th Aug 2021 at 09:20.
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