Olympic Games 2032. Estimated helicopter fleet changes next eleven years.
The 2032 Summer Olympics, officially known as the Games of the XXXV Olympiad and also known as Brisbane 2032, is an international multi-sport event scheduled to take place from 23 July to 8 August 2032, in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. Brisbane 2032 will be the third Summer Games to be held in Australia after the 1956 Summer Olympics in Melbourne, Victoria and the 2000 Summer Olympics in Sydney.
Good news for the rotorcraft industry; both drones and helicopters. Brisbane needed some cheerful news as the COVID-19 variant “Delta” is causing chaos in Australia – so the exciting announcement has arrived not too soon!
A report is being prepared by Rotorcraft Asia-Pacific Business Association (RAPBA) to share with industry. It will start World Expo 88, also known as Expo 88, which was a specialized Expo held in Brisbane, the state capital of Queensland, Australia, during a six-month period between Saturday, 30 April 1988 and Sunday, 30 October 1988, inclusive.
The theme of the Expo was "Leisure in the Age of Technology", and the mascot for the Expo was an Australian platypus named Expo Oz.
Organizer's forecasted 7 million visitors, but 14 million eventually turned up - big boost then for City and Country Helicopters (Official World Expo 88 Helicopter Service). Every major international event since then has provided a boost several years prior and six months beyond a similar event.
Looking back ten years from 30 June '21 the CASA register increased from 1,874 to 2,433 or 559 helicopters. (2.65% pa growth)
Looking forward eleven years to 2032 and assuming the growth rate stays the same then today’s 2,433 would grow at 2.65% pa, over eleven years to 3,332 as the Games start.
In summary, the fleet increased by 559 helicopters over the past decade. The next eleven years it is estimated the fleet will grow by a further 899 helicopters to 3,332 machines.
The future load upon our 41 schools over the next eleven years represents a need for at least 2,770 ATPL(H)/CPLH for fleet growth and normal attrition.
Overall good news for helicopter schools and MROs – say 320,000 training hours.
A very detailed report pending as attrition rates vary with each group and the new CASR’S may increase training overheads, but TBA after RAPBA research is completed.
However, the current RW annual growth, despite COVID, is 4.5% pa. (Three decades ago it was 6 to 7% or 2-3 times increase in GDP). More info will be after RAPBA gets the pilot and engineers templates finished - this will occur when CASA Annual Report for 2020-2021 is released in early October. If increase is double that of past decade, then we may have a problem with staff for schools iaw CASR Part 61 - Flight Crew Licensing. There already is a shortage of instructors and testing officers.
Last edited by robsrich; 6th Aug 2021 at 11:55.