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Old 30th May 2021, 23:14
  #166 (permalink)  
Skipness One Foxtrot
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: London
Age: 42
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I don't see demand being lower for years, once vaccine is globally available beyond a certain point, most countries NEED the trade to help pay off COVID debts, perhaps with a few exceptions. But demand is clearly massive albeit pent up and many people are accumulating large cash cushions they're dying to spend. I am pretty cynical, (no really I am!) but summer 2022 should be a boom summer, if not back to 2019 levels just yet. There will likely be some panicked restrictions as seasonal virus does it's thing in winter but most of us will be vaccinated.

The key disruptor event may be with LHR slots being freed up as some companies collapse or don't return which may well restrict a return to long haul at Gatters. China Airlines really doesn't want to be at LGW for example as they're at a competitive disadvantage against EVA being at LHR. BA have not retired their A320 fleet in large numbers, if you see that happening, then look to LGW being massively downsized. The only unscheduled withdrawals thus far have been the B747-400s and the 2 LGW based B777s to Teruel for "storage". The LGW A319s are rotating through LHR to keep them active.
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