Borders opening is ‘when’, not ‘if’ and it’ll be well before the end of next year.
I reckon when they hit the 60% mark they’ll set a date 6 months in the future beyond that and tell the other 40% of the population they have that long to be vaccinated because after that the borders are open.
I also reckon we may have a phased start up. Singapore and Japan could be by years end or potentially earlier- especially in Singapore’s case. My guess is the borders to the USA will be opening around March/ April next year. The UK if they end up with everyone vaccinated and nil transmission could end up open by this Christmas with some minor restrictions for them to isolate upon arrival for a few days until negative test is confirmed. Manila perhaps not for a couple of years.
Depends a bit on how successful the vaccine is in stopping transmission. If it significantly decreases it AND it stops severe Covid AND most of the populations is vaccinated, why would there be any restrictions at all?
As to QF crew numbers, I reckon QF have worked out how to do the minimum and how to hibernate everything. The scenario that is probably giving them nightmares at the moment is if demand roars back. With long lead times required for the A380 to get aeroplanes and crew up to speed it’d take 12 months plus to get all 12 jets back in the air. I reckon they could do 3-4 in four months. 6 Jets in about 9 months. The remaining six would probably take another 6 months on top of that.